Odds may seem like simple numbers attached to a sporting event inside a sportsbook, but in reality they are much more than that.

Before they reach you, a combination of factors is analyzed, and from there each platform begins its own unique process.

That is why NetBet Sport, for example, may offer higher odds than other bookmakers for the same match, while in other situations the opposite scenario may happen.

Even so, since the same elements are on the table, there will hardly ever be a major discrepancy between these numbers.

With all of this in mind, today we will show you how bookmakers calculate betting odds in general.

Statistical probability as the main factor behind betting odds

Very differently from a large portion of bettors, who use intuition to predict results, sportsbooks use a massive amount of data and tools to get as close as possible to the mathematical probabilities of a sporting event.

In addition, human expertise, through different types of analysts and analyses, still holds significant value by applying a perspective that machines still cannot fully replicate. Below are some of the factors analyzed for this first stage to be completed.

Technical quality

Technical quality is one of the most important factors in the analysis carried out by bookmakers. This basically means evaluating the overall level of the squad, the individual ability of the players and tactical efficiency. This combination is what will determine who becomes the favorite to win.

Of course, the probability of a team having the exact same players available for every single match is minimal. That is why detailed analysis regarding tactical changes, injuries or suspensions is so important.

Recent performances

Recent performances tend to be more important than results themselves, since bookmakers try to look at how teams have actually been playing instead of considering only how many wins or losses they accumulated in recent matches.

In many cases, sports such as football and basketball allow teams with poor performances to achieve a series of good results, while teams that produce strong numbers are unable to build the same streak due to small details.

Psychological factors

At the same time that the example above may calm a team that is not winning despite playing well, it may also affect it negatively, since the lack of positive results can eventually create what we commonly call poor form.

For analyses focused on psychology in sports, the human eye becomes important once again, focusing not only on collective performance, but also on individual aspects, especially in markets where player betting options are available and odds are also created.

Match location

During popular sporting events where a considerable number of fans are expected, home advantage tends to directly influence the outcome. However, this is not the only advantage enjoyed by the home team.

There is also the comfort of playing in a familiar environment and even under specific weather conditions, which naturally generates greater confidence and comfort. On top of that, the home team does not need to deal with travel fatigue before the match.

Margin as the basis of profit

After trying to estimate the probabilities of a sporting event as accurately as possible, it becomes time for the sportsbook to seek an advantage over its customers. In simple terms, profit.

For this objective to be achieved, the odds offered actually need to be lower than the result obtained through probability analysis. This difference is what creates the platform’s margin.

That way, even when users achieve major wins in certain moments, the bookmaker is still able to outperform financially in the long run.

Practical example of a profit-oriented calculation

Let’s imagine that in a Premier League match between Arsenal and Crystal Palace, Arsenal’s chances of winning are 65%.

In that case, we must transform this number into 0.65 and divide 1 by that value. This would result in rounded odds of 1.54.

Aiming for the margin that keeps the platform sustainable, the sportsbook would likely offer something around 1.46 to 1.50 to its users instead.

Adapting to market dynamics

Finally, after the odds are released, betting sites still need to remain constantly attentive to market movement. Depending on each platform’s perspective, odds tend to change in different ways.

The closer a sporting event gets, the more bets begin to be placed on it. If, for example, a large number of bets starts coming in on Team A, it is natural for the bookmaker to lower the odds for that betting market.

At the same time, aiming to attract customer attention, the odds for the other team’s victory tend to rise. This entire search for balance exists so the sportsbook can reduce its level of financial exposure.

Some of the factors that determine the favorite may also change as the sporting event approaches. This can happen through a last minute injury, unexpected lineup changes or drastic weather changes.